European climate policies set a stringent path toward decarbonisation: by 2030, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must be reduced by 55% compared to 1990 levels. By 2050, carbon neutrality must be achieved. An intermediary target of a 90% reduction by 2040, proposed by the European Commission, is still under review.
Within this broader framework, the EU transport sector faces the challenge of cutting emissions by at least 90% by 2050—an almost herculean task, given that emissions remain about 20% above 1990 levels. Technology alone will not be enough; a modal shift must be part of the solution, especially considering that most car trips cover distances that could realistically be shifted to cycling. But how much can modal shift contribute?
To explore this question, ECF has conducted a
literature review—while it may not provide a definitive answer, it sheds light on the potential role of cycling in reducing transport emissions.
A Challenging Track Record for Transport
Transport has consistently been the hardest sector to decarbonise in Europe. According to the European Environment Agency (EEA), it currently accounts for about a quarter of the EU-27’s GHG emissions. Projections suggest that domestic transport emissions will not fall below 1990 levels until 2032, with road transport alone responsible for 73.2% of all transport-related emissions in the EU (2022). Despite the urgency, the EEA has not comprehensively quantified the EU-wide CO2 savings potential of replacing car trips with cycling. The first part of this publication addresses that gap.
In Germany, this knowledge gap has been partially addressed by a report from ECF member ADFC. It envisions a "Cycling Nation Germany," where cycling achieves a 45% modal share for trips under 30 km, potentially saving up to 19 million tonnes of CO2 annually. For context, the EU transport sector emits around 800 million tonnes of CO2e each year. A summary of this report is presented in the second part of this publication.
Additionally, ECF has compiled a comprehensive literature review, listing 19 academic papers —14 of which focus on Europe—examining cycling’s potential to reduce emissions. These studies are covered in the third part of this publication.
Did we miss any relevant literature? If so, please share it with us at
[email protected].
To date, the only attempt to quantify the EU-wide CO2 savings potential of cycling remains ECF’s 2011 publication,
Cycle More Often 2 Cool Down the Planet: Quantifying CO2 Savings of Cycling. While now outdated, it remains influential, with at least four of the 19 reviewed papers citing it. Given the major shifts in climate and transport policy, the rise of e-bikes, bike-sharing schemes, cargo bikes, and behavioral changes seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, ECF strongly believes an updated version of this report is urgently needed.
